The first Santa Ana of the season should arrive Sunday morning, and while it's not expected to rival the winds that drove the devastating wildfires last October, civic leaders and fire officials are on alert.
Fire departments are gearing up with a small army and air force of firefighters, heavy equipment and aircraft.
“We're as prepared as we're gonna be. We're ready,” said San Diego Fire Chief Tracy Jarman.
Weather conditions, at least in San Diego County, aren't expected to equal the perfect storm of high temperatures, low humidity and powerful offshore winds that enveloped the area last year.
For comparison purposes, if the Santa Anas that fanned flames last year were rated as a 10, National Weather Service forecaster Phil Gonsalves said, the next one would probably rank as a 7 or 8.
“It's not going to be of the same intensity or duration,” Gonsalves said. “It's going to be bone-dry, but we're not going to see the kind of wind speeds down here that will cause physical damage.”
Wind gusts topped 60 mph in some San Diego County canyons last Oct. 21. Those winds knocked down trees and power lines, which started some of the fires. Temperatures were also higher during the fires last year than they are expected to be Sunday and Monday.
Forecasters predict sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph in inland San Diego County, with localized gusts of about 45 mph at the peak Monday morning. The winds should die down by Tuesday afternoon, Gonsalves said.
If the winds turn out to be stronger than anticipated, San Diego Gas & Electric Co. might shut off power in much of the backcountry.
SDG&E spokeswoman Stephanie Donovan said if the National Weather Service issues a red-flag warning because of high fire danger and other criteria are met, SDG&E will turn off the power to an area where sustained winds are greater than 35 mph or wind gusts top 55 mph.
“We're watching the weather very closely,” Donovan said.
Power will be shut off only because of actual conditions, not forecasts, Donovan said.
Fire officials say they are ready for the worst. Division Chief Ned Nickerson of Cal Fire said his agency has 31 fire engines, 22 hand crews, and five bulldozers and extra water tenders in the county ready to move.
In addition, another force of 26 engines, 18 hand crews, three bulldozers and three reserve engines is being brought from Northern and Central California and staged in the Riverside area, ready to go at the first sign of a major fire in Southern California, Nickerson said.
The U.S. Forest Service is weighing in with another 20 engines, two bulldozers and another water tender.
As for aircraft, Cal Fire has four air tankers and two air attack planes at its Ramona air base, Nickerson said. Added to that are two Forest Service tankers, a half-dozen helicopters from various agencies, one large “heli-tanker” and two Canadian-built CL-415 Super Scoopers leased this year by the county.
Cal Fire also has contacted the Navy and Marines about having military aircraft available should a major fire break out, Nickerson said.
Mayor Jerry Sanders cited the presence of the city's new firefighting helicopter, Copter 2, as well as the agreement signed with Cal Fire to allow the city's firefighting helicopters to make night water drops on fires that start on state-owned land.
“San Diego has never been better prepared for the wildfire season, from a prevention or a firefighting standpoint,” Sanders said at a news conference in Rancho Peñasquitos yesterday.
The season's first Santa Ana could serve as a wake-up call for county residents, North County Fire Protection District spokesman John Buchanan said.
“This is a good time to start planning,” he said. Homeowners should make their property fire-safe by clearing roofs and rain gutters and removing flammable materials around their homes.
The county is lucky the coming Santa Ana isn't worse, forecaster Stan Wasowski said.
“This first one cuts us a little slack,” he said. “We'll have to see how the other ones develop. You know there's more coming. It's not going to stop.”
Robert Krier: (619) 293-2241; rob.krier@uniontrib.com
